NDLI: Flood forecasting in the upper Uruguay River basin

Content Provider	SpringerLink
Author	Fernández Bou, A. S. Sá, R. Ventura Cataldi, M.
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Floods are common in the upper Uruguay River, and they may occur almost at any moment, because there are not defined rainfall seasonal patterns. Moreover, there is not an official model for flood forecasting in this basin. This study developed a methodology for 1-month flood forecasting in the upper region of the Uruguay River basin (≥3000 m$^{3}$ s$^{−1}$), from the headwaters to the Itá reservoir. The monthly version of the SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure) model was presented and used to describe the transformation of rainfall into runoff, and the CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System version 2) model was used to provide rainfall forecasts. Twenty-five 1-month-lead rainfall forecasts were used to calculate 25 flow predictions for every month. Ensembles with different number of members were compared among them and with the official model currently used for 1-month flow forecasting in the upper Uruguay River. The best accuracy was achieved with the average of the first seven members, which showed a mean relative error of 10.8 % during the floods, while the official model presented 64.0 %, predicting remarkably lower flows. Furthermore, during the period assessed, the correlation between the natural flow and the first-seven-member ensemble was >0.77, while with the official model was 0.34. Thus, coupling SMAP and CFS is a valid approach that can be useful to anticipate mitigating actions to decrease the effects of severe floods in the upper Uruguay River and, probably, in other Brazilian basins.
Starting Page	1239
Ending Page	1256
Page Count	18
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0921030X
Journal	Natural Hazards
Volume Number	79
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	15730840
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2015-07-16
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Subject Keyword	Flood forecast Flood defense SMAP CFSv2 Natural Hazards Hydrogeology Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Civil Engineering Environmental Management
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Water Science and Technology

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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