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Author Huang, Xiaming ♦ Fang, Guan ♦ Lin, Jie ♦ Xu, Keyu ♦ Shi, Hongqi ♦ Zhuang, Lei
Editor Sakai, Eiji
Source Hindawi
Content type Text
Publisher Hindawi
File Format PDF
Copyright Year ©2018
Language English
Abstract Introduction. Early and accurate diagnosis of strangulated small bowel obstruction (SSBO) is difficult. This study aimed to devise a prediction model for predicting the risk of SSBO. Materials and Methods. A database of 417 patients who had clinical symptoms of intestinal obstruction confirmed by computed tomography (CT) were evaluated for inclusion in this study. Symptoms and laboratory and radiologic findings of these patients were collected after admission. These clinical factors were analyzed using logistic regression. A logistic regression model was applied to identify determinant variables and construct a clinical score that would predict SSBO. Results. Seventy-six patients were confirmed to have SSBO, 169 patients required surgery but had no evidence of intestinal ischemia, and 172 patients were successfully managed conservatively. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, body temperature ≥ 38.0°C, positive peritoneal irritation sign, white blood cell (WBC) count > 10.0 × 10^9/L, thick-walled small bowel ≥3 mm, and ascites were significantly associated with SSBO. A new prediction model with total scores ranging from 0 to 481 was developed with these five variables. The area under the curve (AUC) of the new prediction model was 0.935. Conclusions. Our prediction model is a good predictive model to evaluate the severity of SBO.
ISSN 16876121
Learning Resource Type Article
Publisher Date 2018-03-26
Rights License This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
e-ISSN 1687630X
Journal Gastroenterology Research and Practice
Volume Number 2018
Page Count 7


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