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Author Thomas, T. ♦ Weijermars, W. ♦ van Berkum, E.
Sponsorship IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Society
Source IEEE Xplore Digital Library
Content type Text
Publisher Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
File Format PDF
Copyright Year ©2000
Language English
Subject Domain (in DDC) Social sciences ♦ Commerce, communications & transportation ♦ Technology ♦ Engineering & allied operations
Subject Keyword Traffic control ♦ Telecommunication traffic ♦ Predictive models ♦ Volume measurement ♦ Extrapolation ♦ Urban areas ♦ Cities and towns ♦ Intelligent transportation systems ♦ Noise level ♦ Demand forecasting ♦ uncertainty ♦ Demand forecasting ♦ error measures ♦ evaluating ♦ Kalman filter
Abstract Congestion is increasing in many urban areas. This has led to a growing awareness of the importance of accurate traffic-flow predictions. In this paper, we introduce a prediction scheme that is based on an extensive study of volume patterns that were collected at about 20 urban intersections in the city of Almelo, The Netherlands. The scheme can be used for both short- and long-term predictions. It consists of 1) baseline predictions for a given preselected day, 2) predictions for the next 24 h, and 3) short-term predictions with horizons smaller than 80 min. We show that the predictions significantly improve when we adopt some straightforward assumptions about the correlations between and the noise levels within volumes. We conclude that 24-h predictions are much more accurate than baseline predictions and that errors in short-term predictions are even negligibly small during working days. We used a heuristic approach to optimize the model. As a consequence, our model is quite simple so that it can easily be used for practical applications.
Description Author affiliation :: Centre for Transp. Studies, Univ. of Twente, Enschede, Netherlands
ISSN 15249050
Education Level UG and PG
Learning Resource Type Article
Publisher Date 2010-03-01
Publisher Place U.S.A.
Rights Holder Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Volume Number 11
Issue Number 1
Size (in Bytes) 589.84 kB
Page Count 10
Starting Page 71
Ending Page 80


Source: IEEE Xplore Digital Library