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Author Amodu, M. F. ♦ Ejieji, C. J.
Source Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Content type Text
Publisher University of Maiduguri
File Format HTM / HTML
Date Created 2017-07-27
Copyright Year ©2017
Language English
Subject Domain (in LCC) TA1-2040
Subject Keyword Civil engineering ♦ Engineering ♦ Technology
Abstract Twenty Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were evaluated by comparing their predictions of monthly average air temperature and monthly rainfall amounts of the sudan-sahel region of Nigeria with observed data for the period 1981 to 2000. The GCMs were those in the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3). The observed data were from four representative stations namely Kano, Katsina, Maiduguri and Sokoto. Coefficient of correlation (r), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used as metrics for ranking the GCMs. None of the GCMs was superior in performance across the four representative stations. The trends of observed average monthly air temperature were generally better simulated with positive r-values in contrast with their monthly rainfall predictions which correlated negatively with observed data. The r-values for temperature averaged 0.211, 0.092, 0.373 and 0.212 for Kano, Katsina, Maiduguri and Sokoto respectively. For rainfall, the r-values averaged -0.216, -0.280, -0.115 and -0.351 for Kano, Katsina, Maiduguri and Sokoto respectively. Simulated rainy season commenced 4 to 6 months earlier than observed depending on the particular GCM. The average MAE from the GCMs for the respective stations ranged from 5.23 to 14.31 K for temperature and 81.91 to 91.99 mm for rainfall. For RMSE, the averages from the GCMs ranged from 5.84 to 14.42 K for temperature and 140.21 to 187.99 mm for rainfall. The results of the study have provided the basis for selection of appropriate GCMs for the locations for further downscaling procedures that might be required for the application of a selected GCM to climate change projection.
ISSN 25455818
Age Range 18 to 22 years ♦ above 22 year
Educational Use Research
Education Level UG and PG ♦ Career/Technical Study
Learning Resource Type Article
Publisher Date 2017-04-01
e-ISSN 25455818
Journal Arid Zone Journal of Engineering, Technology and Environment
Volume Number 13
Issue Number 2
Page Count 16
Starting Page 252
Ending Page 267


Source: Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)