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Author Ghitza, Yair ♦ Gelman, Andrew
Source CiteSeerX
Content type Text
File Format PDF
Subject Domain (in DDC) Computer science, information & general works ♦ Data processing & computer science
Subject Keyword Deep Interaction ♦ Election Turnout ♦ Voting Pattern ♦ Small Electoral Subgroup ♦ Vote Choice ♦ Voting Level ♦ Social Science ♦ Turnout Change ♦ Scholarly Work ♦ Survey Weight ♦ American Public ♦ Covariate Interaction ♦ Unequal Inclusion Probability ♦ Statistical Procedure ♦ Voter Turnout ♦ Various Behavioral Topic ♦ Interacted Subgroup ♦ Numerous Way ♦ Postestimation Adjustment ♦ Presidential Election ♦ Popular Method ♦ Deeper Level ♦ Political Participation ♦ Geographic Characteristic ♦ Survey Method ♦ Informative Multidimensional Graphical Display ♦ Multilevel Regression ♦ Vote Choice Change
Abstract Using multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP), we estimate voter turnout and vote choice within deeply interacted subgroups: subsets of the population that are defined by multiple demographic and geographic characteristics. This article lays out the models and statistical procedures we use, along with the steps required to fit the model for the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections. Though MRP is an increasingly popular method, we improve upon it in numerous ways: deeper levels of covariate interaction, allowing for nonlinearity and nonmonotonicity, accounting for unequal inclusion probabilities that are conveyed in survey weights, postestimation adjustments to turnout and voting levels, and informative multidimensional graphical displays as a form of model checking. We use a series of examples to demonstrate the flexibility of our method, including an illustration of turnout and vote choice as subgroups become increasingly detailed, and an analysis of both vote choice changes and turnout changes from 2004 to 2008. The introduction of survey methods into the social sciences in the 1940s preceded an explosion of scholarly work explaining the voting behavior of the American public. This work has touched various behavioral topics: political participation (Brady, Schlozman,
Educational Role Student ♦ Teacher
Age Range above 22 year
Educational Use Research
Education Level UG and PG ♦ Career/Technical Study
Learning Resource Type Article