Thumbnail
Access Restriction
Open

Author Klein, Lawrence R. ♦ Özmucur, Süleyman
Source CiteSeerX
Content type Text
File Format PDF
Language English
Subject Domain (in DDC) Computer science, information & general works ♦ Data processing & computer science
Subject Keyword Quality Adjustment ♦ Many Scholar ♦ Diagnostic Test ♦ Whole Point ♦ Several Strategic Indicator ♦ Different Estimate ♦ Principal Component ♦ China Economic Growth Rate ♦ Correct Estimate ♦ Monthly Indicator ♦ Official Estimate ♦ Chinese Economy ♦ Within-sample Interpolation ♦ Annual Time Frame ♦ Outside-sample Extrapolation ♦ Basic Social Accounting Principle ♦ Gdp Growth Rate
Description Many scholars of the Chinese economy have concluded that official estimates of China’s GDP growth rate are too high. Journalists have popularized this view, but we disagree. We use a method that examines several strategic indicators that are suggested by basic social accounting principles and conclude that principal components of these indicators reflect the movement of official estimates of the Chinese economy. This conclusion holds whether one uses annual, quarterly or monthly indicators. It cannot be claimed that we have proved that GDP as officially measured is correct. No one knows the correct estimate; that is the whole point of showing how different such estimates can be, depending on how they are calculated, and this is true the world over. Our estimates survive diagnostic tests, within-sample interpolations and outside-sample extrapolations in monthly, quarterly, and annual time frames. It is reasonable to expect that introduction of quality adjustments will justify higher estimates.
Educational Role Student ♦ Teacher
Age Range above 22 year
Educational Use Research
Education Level UG and PG ♦ Career/Technical Study
Learning Resource Type Article
Publisher Date 2006-01-01
Publisher Institution In OECD Publishing